{"id":10774,"date":"2023-09-24T10:09:45","date_gmt":"2023-09-24T09:09:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.taxpolicy.org.uk\/?p=10774"},"modified":"2023-11-21T09:46:58","modified_gmt":"2023-11-21T09:46:58","slug":"70percent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/heacham.neidles.com\/2023\/09\/24\/70percent\/","title":{"rendered":"Why cutting 70%+ marginal rates should be a Government priority"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
If I was a Tory Chancellor, I wouldn\u2019t abolish inheritance tax. I\u2019d fix the ridiculous marginal rates that mean there are hundreds of thousands of 30-somethings paying more than 70% tax on every additional \u00a3 they earn.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n This is complicated, unfair and a disincentive to work; it could also plausibly be holding back growth. Any government serious about fixing the tax system should start here.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n UPDATE 20 November 2023 to take account of the uprating of child benefit.<\/strong> And more here on the ghastly mechanics of the High Income Child Benefit Charge<\/a><\/strong>. Also please note that the figures in this article are for the UK excluding Scotland – the Scottish rates are higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Here’s a speech<\/a> from the last time a Conservative Chancellor cut taxes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n But 45% isn’t the highest rate. Not even close. There are millions of people paying more than 60%. And hundreds of thousands paying much more – some even over 100%. <\/p>\n\n\n If you want to know your take-home pay, then it’s your effective rate of tax that’s important – total tax you pay, divided by gross wage (more on that here<\/a>). Earn \u00a350k, you take home about \u00a338k after tax, so your effective tax rate is 24%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The marginal rate of tax is different and more subtle – it’s the percentage of tax you’ll pay on the next \u00a3 you earn. Irrelevant to where you are now, but highly relevant to your future, because it affects your incentive to work more hours\/earn more money.1<\/a><\/sup>Everything interesting happens at the margin. For more on why that is, and some international context, there’s a fascinating paper by the Tax Foundation here<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The marginal rate of tax in the UK for high earners in theory caps out at 47% (45% income tax and 2% national insurance2<\/a><\/sup>Note that I’m not including employer’s national insurance here. Employer’s national insurance is absolutely a tax on labour in the long term, because it reduces pay packets in the long term. But it’s not usually included in a calculation of a marginal tax rate, because it’s not economically passed to you in the short term, and so it won’t rationally affect your decision whether or not to work more hours. There’s a good explanation of this point here.<\/a><\/span>) once you get to \u00a3125,140k. I’m not terribly convinced this disincentivises anyone to work (and I spent many years working in an environment surrounded by colleagues and clients paying tax at this rate). But people earning much less than \u00a3125k can have a considerably higher rate, principally due to four effects:<\/p>\n\n\n\n These phased withdrawals create very high marginal rates.<\/p>\n\n\n For a family with three kids, the marginal tax rate for a given salary looks like this:3<\/a><\/sup>The Scottish rates are higher – the charts and figures here are for the rest of the UK<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n That bump between \u00a350k and \u00a360k is a 71% marginal tax rate, meaning that, for every additional \u00a31,000 you earn gross, you take home \u00a3290.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Looking at it another way: imagine you’re working a reasonably modest 1,500 hours a year and earning \u00a350k gross, so about \u00a338k take-home. That’s \u00a333\/hour before tax, \u00a325\/hour after tax. <\/p>\n\n\n\n How would you like to work another 200 hours a year for the same hourly rate? Sounds good. But after-tax you’ll actually be earning \u00a39.57\/hour. You may well not think that’s worth your while. And, given that \u00a39.57 is less than the minimum wage, if you need childcare cover then that could easily cost you more than the additional pay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The bump between \u00a3100k and \u00a3125k is the withdrawal of the personal allowance, and results in a 62% rate between \u00a3100k and \u00a3125k. Not quite as dramatic as the 71%, but still well over the psychologically important 50% mark – and that rate lasts for a significant \u00a325k. <\/p>\n\n\n\n An example of how this can play out: you work 1,500 hours a year and earn \u00a399k, gross, about \u00a363k take-home. That’s \u00a366\/hour before tax, \u00a342\/hour after tax. If you work another 400 hours to hit \u00a3125k gross, after-tax you’re earning \u00a326\/hour.<\/p>\n\n\n Because it’s linked to child benefits, those high marginal rates just get bigger the more children you have. I have a friend with six children. Congratulations, Steve, because you can win a marginal tax rate of 96%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Why stop there? With eight children<\/a> you get a top marginal rate of 112% – so if you earn \u00a350k gross, your after-tax pay is \u00a338k. If you earn \u00a360k gross, your after-tax pay is \u00a337k. That’s insane. Hopefully, nobody is actually in that position, but a sensible tax system doesn’t create such results, even in theory.<\/p>\n\n\n Student loans are really just a complicated hidden graduate tax.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For someone starting university before 2012<\/a>, you pay 9% of your salary <\/a>over \u00a320,184, until the loan is repaid. Of course, the effect on individuals – even those on the same income – will vary widely, depending on how much loan they borrowed, how long they’ve been earning, and how their salary ramped up over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We can model it with some simplifying assumptions. Let’s say everyone on the chart is 30 years old, graduated nine years ago, and their salary ramped up in a straight line from \u00a320k to where it is now. The marginal rates then look like this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n I’d be cautious about citing these precise figures, given how dependent they are on the assumptions.4<\/a><\/sup>i.e. because in some cases someone earning \u00a350k will have already repaid their student loan<\/span> But, unsurprising, the broad effect is just to raise all the marginal rates by 9%. Graduates with children can therefore easily suffer from marginal rates of 80%. You can have a play with the spreadsheet<\/a> to look a the various scenarios.<\/p>\n\n\n The Government keeps creating generous childcare schemes that are removed suddenly when your wage hits \u00a3100,000. That creates a marginal rate that can only be described as “insane”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This year, the Government created a new childcare support scheme for parents with children under 3. This could be worth \u00a310,000 per child for parents living in London. And it vanishes completely once one parent’s earnings hit \u00a3100k. Here’s what that does to the marginal tax rate:5<\/a><\/sup>The chart is for a single earner, but if they have a partner, the partner would also need to be earning at least \u00a38,668 (the national minimum wage for 16 hours a week)<\/span> <\/p>\n\n\n\n The 20,000% spike at \u00a3100,000 is absolutely not a joke – someone earning \u00a399,999.99 with two children under three in London will lose an immediate \u00a320k if they earn a penny more.6<\/a><\/sup>The 20,000% figure is a consequence of the spreadsheet incrementing the gross salary by \u00a3100 in each step. Arguably the true marginal rate is \u00a320,000 divided by 1p, or 200,000,000% – but the concept of marginal rates doesn’t really make much sense when we have discontinuities like this<\/span> <\/p>\n\n\n\n The practical effect is clearer if we plot gross vs net income:<\/p>\n\n\n\n After-tax income drops calamitously at \u00a3100k, and doesn’t recover to where it was until the gross salary hits \u00a3145k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is ignoring the pre-existing tax-free childcare scheme, which also vanishes at \u00a3100k. The amounts are less (usually under c\u00a37k\/child) so the curve would look less dramatic. However, as the scheme applies to children under 11, taxpayers feel these effects for many more years. <\/p>\n\n\n If a political party went into an election, promising a tax system like the one described in the article, there would be uproar. But instead, we’ve drifted into this disaster over many years, and the topic is absent from almost all political debate. The Conservative Party mostly doesn’t talk about these high marginal rates, perhaps because they’re too embarrassed to admit it’s mostly a system they created. Labour doesn’t talk about it, perhaps because they’re too embarrassed to appear to care about anyone earning \u00a350k (and Brown\/Darling were responsible<\/a> for the personal allowance taper)7<\/a><\/sup>I’d forgotten that detail – thanks to Robert Palache for reminding me<\/span>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n And if your reaction to this is “I don’t care about people earning \u00a350k or \u00a3100k a year”, then you should. <\/p>\n\n\n\n And we should also care about fairness, at all levels of income. A marginal rate of 80% is a problem we should fix, whether it hits people earning \u00a310k or people earning \u00a31m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The child benefit withdrawal is particularly complicated and unfair, and catches lots of people out<\/a>.9<\/a><\/sup>See also this excellent OTS report here<\/a><\/span> <\/p>\n\n\n\n The human side looks like this, one of many similar messages sent to me:<\/p>\n\n\n\n And:<\/p>\n\n\n\n If we’re looking for ways to fix the tax system, then this should be right at the top of the target list. Regardless of where we sit on the political spectrum. <\/p>\n\n\n One solution is simply to scrap the personal allowance and child benefit tapers (and the marriage allowance to boot). That would, however, be fairly expensive, on the face of it, costing somewhere around \u00a36bn to repeal both.10<\/a><\/sup>Nikhil Woodruff<\/a> has properly modelled this<\/a>, and reckons \u00a36.6bn. We can sense-check very approximately as follows: 500,000<\/a> taxpayers earn \u00a3120k, value of personal allowance is \u00a35k, so approx cost \u00a32.5bn. Child benefit taper envelope: the child benefit taper was expected to bring in \u00a32.5bn of revenue when introduced in 2013<\/a>. Since then, child benefit has gone up about 10%<\/a>, and nominal earnings about 30%<\/a>. Implying costs of around \u00a32.5bn today. The marriage allowance should be small beer by comparison with either figure.<\/span> Scrapping the childcare hard-stop at \u00a3100k, and the student loan repayment rules, would be more expensive still. That said, the widespread awareness of these issues amongst the people affected, and use of salary sacrifice, additional pension contributions, etc, makes me wonder if the actual (dynamic) cost might be materially less.11<\/a><\/sup>Some people respond to this by saying: it’s easy; they can just make a pension contribution to keep their income below \u00a350k\/\u00a3100k. For the self-employed, or anyone with irregular earnings, that’s not so easy to manage in practice. And people (reasonably) often want to spend their earnings as they like, and not make a huge pension contribution<\/span>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Realistically the most likely source of funding is playing around with rate thresholds, for example reducing the point at which the additional rate kicks in. There are certainly other alternatives; but the important thing is that we really, really, shouldn’t have a tax system that can have a 71% marginal rate, let alone a 20,000% marginal rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Oh, and the other lesson: please please, politicians and HM Treasury, don’t introduce any more tapers into the tax system. Thank you.<\/p>\n\n\n All the calculations are in this spreadsheet<\/a>. The key assumptions\/caveats are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Do please send me any corrections, additions or comments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If I was a Tory Chancellor, I wouldn\u2019t abolish inheritance tax. I\u2019d fix the ridiculous marginal rates that mean there are hundreds of thousands of 30-somethings paying more than 70% tax on every additional \u00a3 they earn. This is complicated, unfair and a disincentive to work; it could also plausibly be holding back growth. Any […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12501,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[139],"tags":[103,145],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/heacham.neidles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-12.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/heacham.neidles.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10774"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/heacham.neidles.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/heacham.neidles.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/heacham.neidles.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/heacham.neidles.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10774"}],"version-history":[{"count":43,"href":"https:\/\/heacham.neidles.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10774\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12546,"href":"https:\/\/heacham.neidles.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10774\/revisions\/12546"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/heacham.neidles.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12501"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/heacham.neidles.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10774"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/heacham.neidles.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10774"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/heacham.neidles.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10774"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
The marginal rate<\/h2>\n\n\n
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The 70%+ rates<\/h2>\n\n\n
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Let’s go higher<\/h2>\n\n\n
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What about student loans?<\/h2>\n\n\n
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It gets worse<\/h2>\n\n\n
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Why does nobody care?<\/h2>\n\n\n
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The solution<\/h2>\n\n\n
The caveats<\/h2>\n\n\n
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